Many businesses are already investing some of that cash in new equipment as they ramp up output in response to firmer demand and skimpy inventories!!

The FED Governor: Ben S. Bernanke

Approach/Strategy:-

1. Constrained Discretion;

2. Inflation-Targeting;

3. PCE As Preferred Measure Of Inflation (Range of 1% to 2% inflation as his "comfort zone");

4. Focused On Inflation Expectations & Resource Utilization To Determine Monetary Policy;

5. Regulation Fair Disclosure or RFD;

6. Relies More On Economic Models And forecasts To guide Views



Challenges 1 (Global Financial Crisis):

1. Forsaking Interest-Rate Targets, The Fed Is Focusing On Cutting Borrowing Costs and Kick-Starting Demand. The Federal Reserve's Increasingly Unconventional Efforts To Mend The Financial Markets and Restore Economic Growth;

2. Maintaining Sustainable Economic Growth & Price Stability



The Fed’s Objective: To Lower A Broad Range Of Interest Rates And Foster Easier Credit Conditions, Even Though The Fed Has Run Out Of Room To Lower Its Target Rate.



The Strategy Comprises Three Sets Of Programs:-

· The first group enhances liquidity via the Fed's traditional role as lender of last resort to banks. These are programs that make loans of cash or Treasury securities in exchange for less-liquid collateral.

· The second set is aimed at supplying liquidity outside the banking system directly to borrowers and investors in key credit markets. These activities include the upcoming program, to be coordinated with the Treasury, to buy up to $200 billion of asset-backed securities, debts backed by car loans, credit cards, and student loans.

· Finally, the Fed has begun to buy longer-term securities, most notably some $600 billion in debt and mortgage-backed paper held by federal agencies. On Jan. 28 2008 it reiterated that it's prepared to buy longer-dated Treasuries.


Fiscal Policy: US$789 Billion Package Of Spending And Tax Cuts


Fed Funds (Overnight Loans Between Banks) Rate as at Oct 2009: Range Of Between Zero & 0.25%


Fed Discount (Direct Loans To Banks From Central Bank) Rate as at Oct 2009: 0.50%


The Outcome as at Oct 2009:-

The Fed's balance sheet has ballooned to $2.1 trillion, reflecting the creation of a spate of lending programs intended to ease the financial crisis. That's more than double before the crisis struck.

As the crisis has eased, so has demand for some of the Fed's lending programs.

Short-term lending, which hit $1.1 trillion at the end of last year (2008), when the crisis was still mounting, has fallen to about $264 billion, a drop of more than 75 percent since the turn of the year (2009). Expecting this trend to continue as markets improve.


Demand for another "commercial paper" program that provides companies with short-term financing needed to pay for salaries and supplies also has declined sharply, from $334 billion at the turn of the year (2009) to less than $50 billion currently (Oct 2009)



Meanwhile, the Fed is on track to wrap up this month (Oct 2009) a $300 billion program to buy government debt. That program aims to lower rates for mortgages and other consumer debt.


The Fed also is buying $1.25 trillion worth of mortgage-backed securities, in another move to force down mortgage rates. Bernanke said both programs appear to be having their "intended effect."



Challenges 2 (Recovery Stage): Fears Of Inflation

The Fed’s Objective: Sop Up The Excess Liquidity Being Pumped Into The Economy.- The “Exit Strategy”

Overall the Federal Reserve has a wide range of tools for tightening monetary policy when the economic outlook requires them to do so. It will calibrate the timing and pace of any future tightening, together with the mix of tools to best foster its dual objectives of maximum employment and price stability.


The Risk: Tightening too soon could short-circuit the recovery. Waiting too long could ignite inflation.

The Exit Strategies:-

1. Besides boosting its key bank lending rate, the Fed can raise the rate it pays banks on reserve balances held at the central bank. That would give banks an incentive to keep their money parked there, rather than having it flow back into the economy, where it can stoke inflationary pressures;

2. The Fed also can set up the equivalent of certificates of deposit for banks at the central bank, another incentive for banks to keep their money at the Fed;

3. The Fed also can drain money from the financial system by selling securities from its portfolio with an agreement to buy them back at a later date. Such large-scale "reverse repurchase agreements" can be done with banks, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and other institutions. That might involve transactions with money market mutual funds. Or the Fed can sell a portion of its securities outright.


The Risks In The Global Economy:-

1. High Oil Price with a sustained supply shock resulting from a major interruption in the supply -> Inflation Pressures -> Higher Interest Rate -> Bizs Cut Capital Spending & Hiring -> Cut In Consumer Spending -> Raising Inflation And A Flagging Economy!;

2. A Global Credit & Liquidity Crunch Originate From US Subprime Loans Crisis (Stabilizing );

3. A Global Deflationary Threat -> Hints of Global Recovery And Fears of Inflation;

4. A US Dollar (Depreciating) Crisis & High Commodity Prices (Rising)


By Ben Bernanke … Oct 2009


Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke sent a fresh signal on Oct 2009 that he's in no rush to reverse course and start boosting interest rates.


The Fed's key bank lending rate is now (Early Oct 2009) at a record low near zero and will probably stay there for an "extended period. That echoed the pledge he and his colleagues made at their meeting in late September 2009.


The goal: super-low rates will entice people and businesses to spend more, nurturing the budding recovery.


Although Bernanke has previously said the United States is likely out of recession, he has warned that the recovery won't be robust enough to prevent the unemployment rate - now (Oct 2009) at a 26-year high of 9.8 percent - from rising.

It is expected to top 10 percent this year (2009), and rise as high as around 10.5 percent in the middle of next year (2010) before slowly drifting downward.


Still, Bernanke made clear on Oct 2009 that when the time is right the Fed will have the tools and the political will to reel in the unprecedented amount of money it has pumped into the economy to avoid unleashing inflation.


At some point, however, as economic recovery takes hold, we will need to tighten monetary policy to prevent the emergence of an inflation problem down the road.


The Fed chief laid out some more details about how the central bank would sop up the money.

By Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan … Oct 2009

He predicted that the jobless rate will pass 10 percent and stay there for a while, and a second stimulus plan is not needed now (Oct 2009).

He spoke favorably of extending unemployment benefits and tax credits for health insurance, options the Obama administration is considering for helping people laid off during the recession.


With more than 15 million people out of work, unemployment reached 9.8 percent in September 2009, the highest rate in 26 years. This is an extraordinary period and temporary actions must be taken, especially to assuage the angst of a very substantial part of its population.


“I don't actually consider those types of actions stimulus programs. I think that they are essentially programs which support people - essentially their living standards in part. I grant you it has a stimulus effect, but that would be my primary focus”.

Calling the jobs (Sept 2009) report "pretty awful," Greenspan said he is particularly concerned with statistics showing the number of people out of work for six months or more has reached 5 million after going up sharply last month (Sept 2009).


People who are out of work for very protracted periods of time lose their skills eventually. What makes an economy great is a combination of the capital assets of the economy and the people who run it. And if you erode the human skills that are involved there, there is a real and, in one sense, an irretrievable loss.


Looking ahead on the unemployment picture, his "own suspicion is that we're going to penetrate the 10 percent barrier and stay there for a while before we start down."


He would recommend that President Barack Obama focus on trying to get the economy going but without doing so much that the government's actions are counterproductive.


With growth for the third quarter 2009 appearing to reach or surpass 3 percent, Greenspan said he would not propose a second stimulus package. In my judgment it's far better to wait and see how this momentum that has already begun to develop in the economy carries forward.


Greenspan again expressed his concern over the growing size of the federal deficit and the federal debt.

Monetary Policy …

Why Inflation Fears Are Unfounded: The Fed will have plenty of time to reverse its huge stimulus, as unused labor and production capacity prevent price pressures from building

Given all the monetary fuel sloshing around the economy right now (Aug 2009), it's easy for investors to feel a little edgy about future inflation. So policymakers at the Federal Reserve have gone to great lengths to convince people the Fed has the tools to sop up the excess funds before they ignite an explosion in prices. However, market professionals have never doubted the Fed's ample assortment of tools.


The question has always been about timing. Too little policy tightening too late could kindle inflation, forcing more stringent measures to tamp it down later on.

Following their Aug. 11-12 2009 meeting, Fed policymakers sounded a pinch more optimistic than they did after their June 2009 meeting. Indeed, fresh news from the July 2009 labor markets amid other favorable signs suggests the recession is all but over. Still, the central bankers said they will keep interest rates exceptionally low for a long time.

Inflation? Not to worry, they say.

Fed officials seem confident that economic conditions will offer an unusually wide time frame to begin tightening policy before price pressures can build. The reason is the enormous slack, or unused labor and production capacity, created by the deepest recession since the 1930s, and the long time that will be needed to absorb the excess. U.S. industry was operating at only 68% of its capacity in June 2009, a record low. History, and basic economics, show inflation cannot take hold until resources start to get stretched.


The most compelling anti-inflation story comes from the labor markets. Any broad and sustained speedup in prices would require a reacceleration in wage growth, the classic wage-price spiral. However, despite the encouraging news from the July 2009 job data, including a smaller-than-expected 247,000 drop in payrolls and a dip in the jobless rate to 9.4% from 9.5% in June 2009, it will be a long time before the job markets are strong enough to push up hourly wages.

Right now (Aug 2009), the spiral for both wage and price inflation is downward, and the rates for both are set to fall further. Hourly wages of production workers last month (July 2009) rose only 2.5% from a year ago (2008), down from a 4.2% pace before the recession began. The comparable annual rate in recent months (Before July 2009) has been even weaker.


At the same time, core inflation, which excludes the short-term ups and downs in energy and food, has fallen more than a percentage point over the past year (2008), to 1.5% in June 2009. Many economists believe the rate will head toward zero in coming months (Aug 2009 & Beyond), a pace below the Fed's comfort zone and dangerously close to deflation, or falling prices.


Wage growth is sure to slow further, since few economists believe the jobless rate has topped out. That won't happen until the economy is strong enough to create the 100,000 or so jobs per month that are necessary to keep the jobless rate from rising. Even after unemployment peaks, it will be far above 5%, thought to be about "full employment." That's the level where price pressures intensify—a mark unlikely to be reached during 2010.


In addition, businesses will be hesitant to rehire laid-off workers until they absolutely have to do so. Companies are enjoying the cost advantages of their slimmed-down workforces. Productivity, or output per hour worked, surged at a 6.4% annual rate in the second quarter 2009. With real gross domestic product widely expected to grow 2% to 3% in the current quarter (3Q2009) as hours worked continue to fall, productivity is set to post another solid advance this quarter (3Q2009).

Big productivity gains, along with weakening wage growth, mean unit labor costs, or pay adjusted for productivity, are plummeting. These costs, which are closely aligned with the pressure to raise prices, fell at an eye-popping 5.8% annual rate in the second quarter 2009 after dropping 2.7% in the first quarter, and they most likely will fall again in the current quarter (3Q2009).

The Fed will be especially vigilant to ensure that its flood of funds does not lift expectations of inflation that could influence price markups and wage setting. But until labor markets improve significantly, any such expectations are highly unlikely to take hold.


2H2009 GDP Growth …


A growing consensus predicts a weak rebound from the recession, but that would go against both the latest data and a trend dating back nine business cycles

There's an old saying in economic forecasting: The consensus is always wrong. But which way? The average forecast of the 52 economists surveyed by Blue Chip Economic Indicators calls for growth in real gross domestic product of 2.7% over the next four quarters (4Q2009 – 4Q2010), with the annual rate in any single quarter no greater than 3%. This early in the recovery, it's tough to argue that the consensus is either too pessimistic or too optimistic, but one thing is clear. The herd does not think the past tendency of strong recoveries to follow deep recessions will hold true this time. For example, in the first year after the severe slumps in 1973-75 and 1981-82, real GDP grew 6.2% and 7.7%, respectively.

The correlation between the depth of recessions and the strength of recoveries over the last nine business cycles is unmistakable. It relates to the extent of the cuts businesses make in output, payrolls, and inventories. It also reflects the amount of pent-up demand created as consumers and businesses postpone spending. Like a rubber band, the economy snaps back in proportion to how far it was pulled down, as consumers finally upgrade old laptops and buy new clothes, and businesses replace inventories and worn-out equipment.

If the consensus is right, the economy's departure from past experience would be striking. After each of the past nine recessions, deep or shallow, real GDP has never required more than three quarters to regain its peak level prior to the downturn. If GDP staged a full recovery over the next three quarters, the economy would grow at a 5.4% annual rate. Even stretched over four quarters, the pace would still be 4.1%.

The common argument is that the usual rebound effect will be limited by the aftershock of the financial crisis: Credit growth is plunging, because households need to unload debt and save more amid lost wealth and tight credit, limiting the business sector's response. However, that's no sure thing. Data on credit flows are not particularly useful for predicting the strength of a recovery. They note that in the strong upturns of the 1970s and 1980s, consumer spending accelerated well before the upturn in consumer credit.


Early in recoveries, the growth of household income is a more important impetus to spending than credit. As job losses fade, pay from wages and salaries, about 60% of aftertax income, will turn up, as it did in July 2009 for the first time in nine months. Also, a lot of spending is done by households and businesses that either don't need to borrow or have good credit quality.

The recovery's oomph will also turn on how much income households feel they need to put away to eliminate debt and restore nest eggs. A rising saving rate weighs heavily on the growth of consumer spending. However, with savings in the second quarter 2009 already at 5% of aftertax income, up from 1.2% in early 2008, the saving rate may be about as high as it needs to go to give households the cushion they want.

Historically, saving behavior loosely tracks the ratio of household income to wealth. As that ratio rises, in this case because of plunging stock prices and home values, so does the savings rate. By the second quarter 2009 the ratio had risen to the levels of the early 1990s, when the saving rate was about 6%, close to where it is now (Oct 2009). Moreover, households in the second quarter 2009 recovered $2 trillion of the $14 trillion in net worth lost during the recession, and rising stock and home prices imply another gain of about $2 trillion this quarter (3Q2009).

So far, the raft of surprisingly positive data in recent weeks (Sept 2009) supports the more upbeat recovery scenario. In particular, the index of leading indicators, a composite of 10 gauges that tends to foreshadow recessions and recoveries, has turned up sharply. Since March the index has grown at an 11.7% annual rate, the fastest five-month pace since the 1981-82 recession.


For now (Oct 2009), none of this will change the minds of the more pessimistic forecasters. However, the historical pattern is on the side of the optimists.

********************************

Greater Expectations for Second-Half 2009 GDP Growth: Economists are raising their second-half 2009 forecasts to 2% to 3%, a pace that would increase the chances for a sustainable economic recovery

Don't look now (Aug 2009), but at least a smidgen of optimism is brightening the economic outlook. After news that real gross domestic product contracted at a mere 1%annual rate last quarter (2Q2009), following three much steeper declines, many economists are nudging up their forecasts for second-half 2009 growth into the 2%-to-3% range. That pace would be twice the general expectation only a few months ago (Before Aug 2009), and it would heighten the chances for a sustainable recovery.

Economists agree that a lasting turnaround depends on consumers, and without a stronger labor market, the upturn could fall flat. All that is true, but recoveries don't start with more jobs. In each of the past four rebounds, overall output, measured by real GDP, picked up first, and jobs afterward. Payrolls turned up one quarter after the 1973-75 recession hit bottom, three quarters following the 1981-82 and 1990-91 downturns, and seven quarters after the 2001 slump.

The same trend is shaping up this time, and second-quarter GDP data show why. Businesses liquidated inventories at a record annual rate of $141 billion last quarter (2Q2009) after a decline of $114 billion in the first quarter 2009. That's the largest two-quarter shrinkage since quarterly records began in 1947. Coming at a time when overall demand shows every sign of stabilizing, that has pushed down stockpiles too far, and businesses now (Aug 2009) have to ramp up production as customers reorder. It's a classic business cycle pattern.

The surprising depth of the inventory liquidation is a chief reason—along with firmer housing activity and consumers' enthusiastic response to the cash-for-clunkers program—forecasters are boosting second-half 2009 expectations. The jump in the Institute for Supply Management's July 2009 index of industrial activity, which showed big gains in orders and production, strongly supports the more upbeat view.


If the economists are right, growth of 2% to 3% will be sufficient to generate at least modest job gains that will prop up consumer spending. It will also add to top-line revenues and help to revive bottom-line profits.


American businesses already are backing away from the cost-cutting frenzy that had exerted such a heavy drag on growth. The downtrend in new jobless claims through July 2009 means a diminishing pace of payroll reductions, and companies have greatly slowed the rate of their cutbacks in capital spending. After record declines of 19% and 39% in the fourth 2008 and first quarters 2009, outlays for equipment and construction shrank only 9% last quarter (2Q2009).


More important, past cost-cutting will benefit profits for some time, and higher earnings will drive companies to expand their operations. With 337 of the companies in Standard & Poor's 500-stock index having reported, second-quarter 2009 earnings are on a track to decline 30% from a year ago (2008).


The earnings surprises reflect companies' efforts to maintain productivity, which is crucial to protecting profit margins. Since the recession began in late 2007, profits per dollar of output among nonfinancial corporations have fallen from 11.8 cents to 10 cents in the first quarter of 2009. That broad measure of margins dropped to 6.3 cents at the low point of the mild 2001 recession.


The Commerce Dept.'s revisions to GDP suggest productivity, or output per hour worked, grew more slowly last year (2008) than current (Aug 2009) data show. But productivity typically falls outright in a recession, and for it to continue to grow at all in a downturn as severe as this one is highly unusual. Given that GDP fell only 1% last quarter while hours worked dropped 8.9%, productivity in the second quarter surged, holding down labor costs and adding further support to margins.


Unfortunately, defending profits in this recession has cost the economy 6.5 million jobs through June. But as companies boost their ordering and production in the second half, they will need to lift payrolls, too.

Corporate Spending …


Business Is Lean, Fit, and Ready to Grow: Outside of finance, corporate balance sheets are rock-solid, and companies will be able to respond quickly as business conditions improve in the second half 2009

The debate over the strength and durability of the recovery remains intense. Even if the current upturn mimics past norms, in which strong recoveries follow severe recessions, many analysts still believe a surprisingly solid second half 2009 won't prevent the economy from faltering in 2010. The big worry, of course, is consumers and the lack of income needed to repair their ragged finances.

What gets overlooked, however, is the totally opposite state of affairs in the business sector, which may be more important to the recovery's trajectory than household balance sheets. American corporations have rarely if ever emerged from a recession so lean, financially fit, and ready to respond to growth. That's important, because companies do the hiring, and their ability and willingness to expand is a crucial gear in the economy's growth machine.

Businesses were already trim heading into the recession: After the 2001 downturn, both payrolls and capital spending grew at the slowest pace in any post-recession period. Then came the cost-cutting frenzy of the past year (2008), allowing profits to turn up strongly in the second quarter 2009, based on Commerce Dept. data, even as overall domestic demand fell. With demand set to grow at least modestly in the second half 2009, the upturn in profits will continue. A decisive return to profitability was a key feature of the recoveries from the severe recessions of the 1970s and 1980s.

Outside the finance sector, the rock-solid condition of corporate balance sheets was clear from the Federal Reserve's latest data. One standout factoid: Nonfinancial companies in the second quarter 2009 had a $156 billion surplus of cash flow relative to their capital spending, a surfeit that allows companies to finance all of their current outlays for equipment and construction without borrowing. Except for 2005, when companies were allowed a one-time repatriation of foreign earnings at a reduced tax rate, that is the largest surplus on record.

Many businesses are already investing some of that cash in new equipment as they ramp up output in response to firmer demand and skimpy inventories. Both orders and production of business equipment have turned up in recent months. Outlays for new construction are sure to remain depressed, but spending for equipment appears to be rebounding faster than in past recoveries. Historically, growth in capital spending and hiring have been tightly correlated.


Through the second quarter 2009, much of the more than adequate cash flow of nonfinancial corporations went to beefing up their holdings of financial assets. Since the end of last year (2008), the ability of liquid assets to cover short-term liabilities has increased back to the record levels that existed prior to the recession.

Companies also have taken advantage of the rallies in the stock and bond markets. They have eliminated a lot of short-term debt, replacing it with more predictable long-term obligations at a low fixed rate. The annual rate of corproate bond issuance averaged $488 billion in the first half, 2009 up significantly from $141 billion in the second half of last year (2008). Plus, corporations became net issuers of stock in the second quarter 2009 for the first time in seven years, eliminating the drain on cash flow from stock buybacks over that period.


Of course, none of this matters for hiring unless businesses can count on stronger revenues. However, recent data suggest demand, especially by consumers, looks stronger than expected. August 2009 retail sales jumped 2.7%, and the surprise was the breadth of the gains outside of the cash-for-clunkers boost. Rising housing starts suggest homebuilding will contribute positively to growth for the first time in 31/2 years. Exports are rising, and government outlays certainly will increase.


As business conditions improve, with companies able to respond quickly, more hiring will not be far behind. Income is always the chief driver of consumer spending, and once jobs begin to turn up, consumers will not likely cause the recovery to falter.

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PERSTIMA, SILK HOLDINGS...CPO FUTURES

Rin Nam Yoong emerges in Perstima: Son of co-founder buys half of company that owns 32.8% of Perstima.

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SILK Holdings Bhd’s PN17 status is expected to be lifted after the listing of its new shares arising from the conversion of the redeemable convertible unsecured loan stocks-A (RCULSA) and from the acquisition of the entire equity interest of AQL Aman Sdn Bhd, as well as the issuance of redeemable convertible unsecured loan stocks-B to the vendors of AQL.

Both the listing of new shares and issuance of loan stocks were expected to be implemented tomorrow.


Silk raised close to RM5mil from its RCULSA at the close of acceptance and payment on Oct 1, which would be used as working capital and to defray expenses related to its proposed regularisation scheme.

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Crude Palm Oil Futures End Up 3% On Commodities, Exports

Posted: 12 Oct 2009 03:57 AM PDT


Crude palm oil futures ended higher Monday amid a commodities rally and price-supportive export figures, market participants said.


The benchmark December contract on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives ended up MYR62, or 3%, at MYR2,147 a metric ton, the highest since Sept. 28, after trading in a narrow MYR2,118-MYR2,152/ton range.

Prices moved higher in the early session after cargo surveyor Intertek Agri Services Saturday put Oct. 1-10 exports at 339,195 tons, up 8.3% from a month ago.

Another cargo surveyor SGS (Malaysia) Bhd. put exports at 345,393 tons. Trade participants were expecting a rise in exports to 339,000 tons.

CPO prices were unaffected by the rise in Malaysia's domestic palm oil reserves, which had risen to a seven-month high, as the figure was already factored in last week, traders said.

According to data released by the Malaysian Palm Oil Board, palm oil stocks rose 11.5% to 1.58 million tons at the end of September, the highest level since February.

The MPOB has also estimated September CPO output rose 4.1% to 1.56 million tons.

"Even though palm oil stocks are slightly higher, it is not a major concern as Malaysia has palm oil storage capacity of around 3 million tons. At current CPO prices, demand may still increase as prices are still attractive," said a Kuala Lumpur-based trading executive.

Prices may continue to move higher in the near term, with prices likely to test resistance at MYR2,170, then MYR2,200, said an analyst in Singapore.

Traders and producers polled last week had expected palm oil stocks to rise to 1.52 million-1.57 million tons.

CPO prices were also backed by strong buying interest in the cash market and higher soyoil prices, with traders fearing averse weather conditions in the U.S. may affect soybean crops.

December soyoil on the Chicago Board of Trade settled 53 points higher at 35.20 cents a pound and was trading up 32 points at 35.52 cents a pound by the end of trade on the BMD.

At 1035 GMT, November light, sweet crude on the New York Mercantile Exchange was trading $1.10 higher at $72.87 a barrel.

In the cash market, cash palm olein for November/December traded $670/ton and $682.50/ton, January/February/March $670/ton and $675/ton, April/May/June traded at $677.50/ton, free on board Malaysian ports, a Singapore-based trading executive said.


Cash CPO for prompt shipment was offered MYR50 higher at MYR2,180/ton.


A total of 20,456 lots of CPO were traded on the BMD versus 13,149 lots Friday.


The open interest stood at 88,935 lots, down from 91,115 lots. One lot is equivalent to 25 tons.



Closing BMD Crude Palm Oil (CPO) futures prices in MYR/ton at 1030 GMT:

Month Close Previous Change High Low
Oct 09 2,193 2,129 Up 64 2,193 2,140
Nov 09 2,164 2,100 Up 64 2,170 2,125
Dec 09 2,147 2,085 Up 62 2,152 2,118
Jan 10 2,144 2,082 Up 62 2,150 2,118

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OBSERVATIONS: Lifted by a combination of short-covering and fresh buying interest, the Kuala Lumpur CPO futures benchmark December 2009 contract closed last Friday at RM2,085 a tonne, up RM49 or 2.41 per cent over the week.

The price rise, however, was really nothing to shout about.

Because of market players’ prevarication and the uncertainly over direction, trading for much of the week was done within a narrow RM2,100-RM2,013 a tonne band. This market only managed to do a decent price run-up last Friday.

Still, there was genuine and fresh buying interest, as evidenced by signs of accumulation in the volume complex indicators. And short-covering liquidation of short positions was evidenced by the contraction of the total open interest position by 1,696 open contracts to 93,504 open contracts
The real catalyst behind the market’s rise in price, though, was weakness in the US dollar, which gave world commodity markets overall a strong lift last week. Gold surged to a record high above US$1,050 (US$1 = RM3.39) an ounce and US grain markets were buoyant.

Although palm oil benefited from the knock-on effect of strength in foreign edible oil markets the local market’s relative small price gain could best be described as an uptick, which could be ascribed to caution on the part of market players ahead of the Malaysian Palm Oil Board’s unveiling of its report on September trade data and end-September 2009 stocks, which should be public knowledge today.

However, this market’s – as well as that of world commodity markets overall – immediate price direction will likely continue to hinge the fate of the US dollar, that is, whether the US greenback will see further weakness – or strength – in the near-term future.

Conclusion: Though this market is likely see an extension of last week’s price rise in early trade this week, it needs to stage a decisive breakout above the RM2,130 a tonne short-term overhead resistance level in order to engender investor confidence that what we are seeing are the stirrings of – or the start to – a new bull phase

Hold fast to Mommy’s hand! 孩子快抓紧妈妈的手

Hurry up, my child,
　　Hurry!
　　Hold fast to Mommy’s hand!
　　The way to heaven
　　Is too dark. my child.
　　Mommy’s worried,
　　You might bang your head.
　　Hurry!!
　　Hold fast to my hand.
　　Let us be side by side.
　　
　　Mommy,
　　I am scared.
　　The way to heaven
　　Is too blurred.
　　I can’t see your hand.
　　For the walls collapsed,
　　Sunshine deprived.
　　I no longer sense
　　Your heartwarming eyes, disappeared.
　　
　　My child,
　　Farewell, my child.
　　The way ahead
　　will no longer be sad.
　　No endless books to read.
　　No countless papers to write.
　　But you must remember
　　Your Mom and Dad.
　　In future life,
　　How we look.
　　How we walk side by side.
　　
　　Mommy,
　　Don’t be afraid.
　　The way to heaven
　　Is crowded
　　With my classmates and my friends.
　　We cheer each other,
　　No tears, we promise.
　　We love everyone’s Mommy.
　　Everyone’s Mommy loves me.
　　In the days without me, Mommy,
　　Love those children who are alive.
　　
　　Mommy,
　　Don’t cry.
　　Our way to heaven,
　　Tears cannot light.
　　Let us
　　Say good-bye.
　　Good-bye…
　　
　　Mommy,
　　I shall always remember
　　You and Daddy,
　　Remember our promise,
　　Remember how you look,
　　How we walk, side by side.

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

WHEN IT IS TIME TO SAY GOOD BYE, NO NEED TO WORRY, NEED NOT TO BE AFRAID.....THIS IS LIFE.......EVERYONE WILL HAVE TO GO............ONE DAY!

PLEASE PRAY HARD! GOD BLESS YOU!
请多祈祷....请多念咒.........咒到用时方恨少!
因果报应要相信!!!多念咒吧!

Parkson, Astro, Proton, Proton/DRB-Hicom

Parkson

Its Prospects … dated Oct 2009

In Oct 2009, HK listed China based New World Department Store China Ltd said it would accelerate expansion in the mainland by adding five new department stores by FY2011 ending June 30 from 33 stores now (Oct 2009). The expansion will increase its retail gross floor area.

This may interests investors as NWDS starts getting more aggressive to catch up with its bigger rivals Parkson Retail Group Ltd which churns out 80% more in terms of revenue and 54% more in terms of earnings. PRG aims to grow its retail GFA by 15% per year.


NWDS is 72.3% owned by HK property giant New World Development Co. As NWDS expands, investors could see a narrowing of the stock’s current discount, in terms of multiple, to PRG, which is seen as more aggressive. In other words, the valuation of NWDS may improve as the company delivers faster earnings growth in the next few years (2010 & Beyond).


The valuation gap between NWDS and PRG is obvious at present (Oct 2009). NWDS was trading at 19 times forward projected earnings while PRG is much more expensive at 32times. That’s a wide gap although both operate in the same segment of the retail sector in China . That PRG, is trading at a premium to NWDS is probably due to the high growth projected for the company over the next few years (2010 & Beyond).


Looking back, both PRG and NWDS have performed at the same pave over the last three years (2006-2008). But somewhere the current (Oct 2009) projections for the companies’ future growth rates differ.


The way both companies manage their balance sheets shows that PRG has been more aggressive.


PRG, controlled by Tan Sri William and the Lion group, has its growth funded in part by gearing apart from cash flow. The company had net borrowings of HK$601 million as of June 30, 2009, which is 15% of its total equity of HK$4.15 billion. It is believed that the group may prepare to gear up further to fund expansion, should the need arise.


In comparison, NWDS has zero borrowings and held HK$2.92 billion cash as at June 30, 2009, which accounted for more than 65% of its HK4.32 billion equity. It would appear that the company has yet to touch the HK$2.56 billion cash it raised from an IPO exercise in July 2007. NWDS has been debt free since it was set up in 2004.


Theoretically, investors have only valued NWDS’ department store business at HK$8.06 billion, after deducting the HK$2.92 billion cash in the company (net current assets of HK$2.08 billion) from its market value of HK$10.98 billion. Stripping out the cash, NWDS is actually trading at 13.8 times FY2009 projected earnings of HK$582 million, which has widened its discount to PRG.


The company was being prudent by holding back expansion plan in 2008 as the global economy went into a tailspin. But now (Oct 2009), the timing seems right to put the cash to work in China , where growth is still resilient, as the global economy gradually recovers.


For companies, operating in China , preserving cash while pursuing a prudent growth strategy is hardly a practice that pleases investors. This is probably reflected in NWDS’ share price. In the retail sector of the mainland, where first mover advantage is critical, competition can only get more intense with newer outlets mushrooming in major cities while the market becomes gradually saturated. It is crucial that players speed up their expansion to gain a foothold in the market.


That being the case, NWDS’ strength is its strong balance sheet to speed up its expansion in China . The company also has an added advantage in being a unit of New World Development. The latter has a slew of residential and commercial development projects in china that it could integrate with NWDS’ department store operations.

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Its Prospects … dated April 2009


Parkson Retail group Ltd (PrG), the largest department store in China listed in HKSE, is expected to be beneficiary of the considerably strong consumer spending.


PRG, a member of the Lion Group, posted a net profit of RMB841 million in FY2008.


Parent company, Parkson Holdings Bhd, which is listed on Bursa , is probably a good proxy. Parkson Holdings owns 53.4% of PRG.


Investors who put their money in PRG will offer them direct exposure to China ’s growth story. Furthermore, the HK listed entity is more liquid, though the valuation is more expensive.


PRG is the main contributor to Parkson Holdings. For the nine months ended March 31, 2009, the china operation generated about 85% of the group’s earnings.


For investors who invest in Parkson Holdings, it owns a retail business in Vietnam also, which is another emerging economy that has substantial growth potential.


Financial Results …

For 2QFY2009 ended Dec 31, 2008, Parkson Holdings Bhd saw its net profit grow 72.3% to Rm104 million. Meanwhile revenue jump to RM684 million.


It saw a 74% plunge in its net profit to RM75.94 million in its third quarter ended March 31, 2009 (3QFY09) from RM295.11 million a year earlier, as the previous corresponding period’s earnings had incorporated an exceptional gain from shares disposal.

Its revenue rose 10.8% to RM703.18 million from RM634.53 million. Earnings per share was 7.48 sen versus 30.4 sen previously. No dividend was declared.


At pre-tax level, the profit of RM188.78 million would have represented a 21% growth over RM156.31 million, excluding the exceptional gain, a year earlier.

For the nine months up to March 31, Parkson’s net profit stood at RM240.28 million, compared with RM395.26 million a year earlier, while revenue rose 16% to RM2 billion from RM1.73 billion previously.


The commendable results were achieved through same-store sales growth, the inclusion of the results of new stores opened and improved productivity from the more efficient use of available floor space.


However, its retail operations were expected to record lower performance in the current quarter, in view of the absence of major festivities and the slowdown in regional retail growth.


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Astro

What’s Up? … dated Oct 2009

Dominant pay-TV provider AStro, in partnership with ESPN Star Sports (ESS) has won the exclusive broadcasting rights for the upcoming 2010/2013 English Premier League (EPL) for Malaysia from the FA Premier League.

In a joint-statement this morning, the companies said that as part of the arrangement, "for the first time, all 380 matches of EPL will be available to be shown live on ESPN, STAR Sports and Astro channels".

However, Astro had to pay "a higher price than anticipated" for the rights to the EPL, officially known as the Barclays Premier League (BPL), due to "the competitive environment".


Will Astro able to recoup its cost incurred – said to be US$250 million (RM855 million) – to keep its exclusive rights to broadcast the EPL for another three seasons through 2013?


Will the EM12 increase in the monthly subscription price of Astro’s sports package from Aug 1 2009 be enough to cover the cost increase, given that the company ended up paying more than it had anticipated for the EPL Rights?


Some say the recent price hike was actually a pre-emptive move ahead of the EPL rights bid and expects the cost increase to be passed on to customers via rates hikes.


But critics said that concern are that Astro’s margins could face undue pressure as the latter would not be able to fully pass on the cost increase so soon after a price hike only three months ago (Aug 2009). Expecting Astro to repackage its sports content as well as other package mixes with a subscription price hike in the medium term.


Without price hike, the RM285 million increase in content cost per year could potentially clip 8% off Asto ‘s FY2010/FY2013 bottom line.


By calculations show that the increase in Astro’s EPL cost per subscriber from the 2006/2009 to the 2010/2013 season is about half the 114% jump in the absolute amount paid for the rights, if few or none of its subscribers choose to drop the sports package.


Astro’s US$300 million EPL cost for the 2010/2013 season works out to about RM14 per subscriber per month, if one were to assume that 2.1 million subscribers continue to take up its sports package through 2013. This is about 55% more than the estimated cost of RM9 per subscriber per month on average for the 2006/2009 season.



Astro’s EPL cost for the 2010/2013 season would rise to some Rm19 per subscriber per month (from RM9) if only 50% of an estimated three million subscribers continue to take up the sports package following a price hike. In other words, Astro should be able to recoup most of its EPL cost increase by raising the subscription price of its sports package by another RM10 per month.


It may be worth nothing that while Astro’s content cost had seen on average a 19% increase over the past five years (2004-2008) to RM1 billion in FY2009, the company had hitherto managed to keep the average revenue per user from its subscribers relatively steady at RM79.00 for 1HFY1/2010 (with 2.78 million subscribers).



Going forward, Astro will have to contend with challenges in the wake of rapid technological advances that have created alternative services. In Sept 2009, Astro had warned that margins for the rest of FY2010 ending Jan 31 would be affected as it had brought forward an additional RM200 million investment to ready its network for high definition television (HD).


The benefits will only realise later years as it may generate no significant revenue during the early phase of the launch of this service.


Besides increasing prices via the repackaging of its channel offerings, there are also opportunities for Astro to replace its services when introducing HDTV by early 2010.


It is understood that HDTV will be introduce in 2010 EPL season in the middle of 2010. There is also an opportunity for Astro to push its HDTV service to footie fans.



Based on the experience abroad, there is the danger of a near term threat to margins due to the mismatch between expensed cost and the trickling in of revenue and profits in the initial stages.


It is likely that Astro will have to subsidise the HDTC set up boxes to encourage takeup, but the chances are that in return for the subsidy, customers will have to sign longer contract.

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Sources say TM has hired a third party sports marketing consultant to bid against incumbent Astro for the exclusive broadcast rights to the EPL 2010/2013 season.


This could set the stage for a bidding war that could see costs for the winner double to a shopping rm800 million.

Total Sports Asia Sdn Bhd will be bidding on TM’s behalf against Astro in a couple of weeks for the rights.

If Singapore ’s experience is any indication, the bidding war for rights to the mega sporting league in Malaysia is expected to push the bids to well above RM500 million.


It is understood that Astro forked out some rm400 million for the exclusive rights to broadcast the current 2006/2009 EPL season, which was more than what it paid for in the previous season. It was then that Astro, for the first time, faced competition for the rights via a joint bid by TM and Media Prima Bhd.


According to unconfirmed reports, SingTel’s winning bid was to the tune of S$400 million. Its win was a blow to Singapore ’s incumbent integrated pay-TV provider, Sarhub.


Both TM and Media Prima have so far not ruled out completely the possibility of entering a bid for the EPL rights.

TM’s rollout of its high speed broadband (HSBB) network is still at a nascent stage. It plans to cover 1.3 million households in the first three years of the rollout of its HSBB network. It is uncertain how much rollout TM can achieve by May 2010. Conversely Astro’s pay TV subscriber base was 2.78 million of Malaysian households as at end July 2009.


It is believed that Media Prima will be brought in because TM’s limited subscriber reach. Another industry source speculates that TM is likely to sell the EPL content back to Astro, should it clinch the rights, to boost returns on the huge upfront investment for the rights.


TM has the lion’s share of Malaysia ’s fixed line network, but most broadband ready lines in Malaysia can only deliver low definition pictures.


Moreover, the needs for TM to make sure it recoups its investment, should it clinch the EPL rights, given that it needs to generate enough cash flow to pay for the rollout of its HSBB network as well as honour its dividend commitment of at least RM700 million a year to shareholders. Without this dividend promise, there would be little reason to support TM’s current price given the competition it is facing in its traditional market and the uncertainty surrounding the pay back period from its huge upfront investment in HSBB.

And content is an expensive business to be in. Astro’s content cost was Rm1 billion for 2009 ended Jan 31.


Come 2010, it will be another expensive year, content wise, for Astro which is spending some Rm200 million on upgrades to offer high definition TV. Besides the EPL rights, 2010 will see the start of the FIFA World Cup.


Considering the circumstances, the winner of Malaysia ’s EPL broadcast rights may not have much to celebrate should a bidding war break out, especially when politics makes it hard to pass on all the cost increase to consumers.

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What’s Up? … dated Oct 2009


TM and Astro All Asia Networks plc may be getting into a bidding war to secure the rights for broadcasting the English Premier League (EPL) for the next three seasons, with the price likely to be more than RM500mil.


TM has denied putting in a bid “at this moment” for the EPL rights but it declined to say if it plans to do so or is using an intermediary to bid for the highly sought-after English football rights.

Astro declined to comment.

Industry sources said the bidding was entering a second round and might include other contenders such as ESPN STAR Sports. ESPN currently holds EPL broadcast rights for the Southeast Asian region and sells it exclusively to Astro in the Malaysian market.

TM is believed to be keen on having the EPL broadcast rights for its planned broadband TV or IPTV (Internet protocol television) launch, following Singapore Telecommunications’ (SingTel) moves. SingTel recently secured EPL rights for three years beginning 2010, outbidding rival incumbent cable television provider Starhub Ltd.


SingTel paid around S$400mil for the EPL rights, according to unconfirmed sources. SingTel plans to broadcast EPL games on its IPTV service called mio TV.

Having attractive content will be a key factor in the success of any new TV offering.

One of the main reasons why pay-TV service, MiTV, launched in 2005, had failed to attract large subscriber numbers was due to not having sufficiently attractive content.

But while the exclusive EPL content strengthened SingTel’s IPTV proposition, it was hard to make the same argument for TM.

SingTel’s IPTV is already up and running on a high-speed broadband network with about 100,000 subscribers while TM is only now piloting its high-speed broadband network. What is it going to do with all that expensive content without a significant subscriber base?


One possibility is to “re-sell” the EPL content before its IPTV network is up. It has been reported earlier that TM may tie up with Media Prima to bid for the EPL rights. Media Prima owns all the non-government free-to-air TV stations in Malaysia .


It is understood that the cost of EPL content makes up about a third of Astro’s total content cost and is not profit generating in itself. But EPL content is still a major pull factor for Astro’s Malaysian subscribers, many of whom are ardent football fans. Hence, it is not suprising that Astro is also seeking to bid for the EPL content directly from the Premier League, rather than buy the content from a third party like ESPN.

TM has been quiet about its IPTV plans but last year it had hired Jeremy Kung, a former Star-TV and PCCW (HK) executive, to help with the rollout. TM also has plans to bundle its voice, broadband and IPTV services into an attractive package to woo customers.


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Proton


What’s Up? …. Oct 2009

Any partnership must be based on the company’s strengths from which it could secure the best possible deal. He dismissed impressions of the press, third parties and the public that Proton was “so weak and dying” that it could not stand on its feet.


According to reports, the national carmaker hopes to strike a deal with a foreign car company by the year-end but it did not disclose the party’s identity.

Nadzmi said Proton was determined to change its financial performance with the right products and increasing market share.

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What’s Up? … dated Sept 2009

It confirmed that it was in discussion on forming a strategic partnership, but refused to name the other party. The discussion is ongoing; I don't want to comment with which party," managing director Datuk Syed Zainal Abidin Syed Mohamed Tahir said after breaking fast with journalists.

According to a news report, Proton was in discussion with Volkswagen AG, Europe 's largest carmaker.


Volkswagen group was also reported planning to make Malaysia as its sourcing hub for auto parts and CKD (completely-knocked down) assembly with a local automaker.


Proton advisor Tun Dr Mahathir said Proton needed a strategic partnership with an international automotive company to upgrade the standard of national car.

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What’s Up? … dated Sept 2009


Proton Holdings Bhd is in talks with Volkswagen (VW) that could lead to a strategic partnership and the assembly of vehicles at the national carmaker’s plant in Tanjung Malim.


The partnership was not expected to see the German auto giant taking an equity stake in Proton but a collaboration in platforms and engines was likely being negotiated, said market sources.


The talks between Proton and VW come at a time when DRB-HICOM Bhd is also engaged in discussions with the German company to assemble cars in Pekan.


For the long term of the company, Proton needs a partner because the size of Malaysia ’s market might not be enough to sustain an independent producer. News that Proton is again in talks with VW is somewhat surprising as both parties have come to, and walked away, from the negotiating table numerous times. A couple of years ago, Proton came close to inking a deal with VW which would have seen the German company taking a stake in the national carmaker. A last-minute pitch by the Proton management to build on the company’s own “green shoots” then persuaded the Government from sealing an agreement with VW.


Proton has maintained it needs a strategic partner but would agree to one on its own terms. It is also understood that the Government would like Proton to have a strategic partner before the review of the National Automotive Policy is completed.


VW’s interest in Malaysia , too, has grown over the past couple of years after equity stake talks with Proton ended. It has established its own sales and service business in Malaysia , and as of Sept 7 2009, has seen the number of cars sold reach a total of 2,261 units after 2½ years of operations.


VW is reported to be looking at Malaysia as its sourcing hub for auto components in the region to fulfil its worldwide production and has intimated plans to expand its presence in the country through the local assembly of some of its cars.


Volkswagen Group Malaysia Sdn Bhd managing director was quoted as saying the group was also thinking of making Malaysia its hub for parts distribution in South-East Asia . They will not be looking only at Malaysia ’s market but use Malaysia as a sourcing hub for worldwide production. VW is also interested in assembling cars in Malaysia and Prinz the company was in discussion with a number of parties.


Malaysia remains an important market in the region as it is the largest passenger car market in South-East Asia , which is said to be an attractive element for VW.


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DRB Hicom


What’s Up? … dated Oct 2009



It has put in a bid to buy 32% of Proton Holdings Bhd in hopes that ownership of the national carmaker in the hands of the private sector would help improve the entire industry.



Arguments put forward by sources close to the company are that vendors would gain from a more private sector-driven approach and that a potential tie-up between Volkswagen and Proton would also fit DRB-HICOM’s multi-partner business model. If the Government holds control of Proton, it may lose out on the big picture.



Proton is now engaged in talks with VW on a strategic partnership as DRB-HICOM and privately held Yasmin Holdings, together with the help of the Naza group and two former top executives of Proton, zero in on a controlling stake in Proton. The executives are Datuk Kisai Rahmat and Datuk Kamarulzaman Darus.



The fight for control of Proton could see the entrance of a third party – the company’s management – after Proton chairman Datuk Mohd Nadzmi Mohd Salleh gave his backing to any potential management buyout (MBO) of the national carmaker.



DRB-HICOM’s interest in Proton was sparked after the latter began talks with VW.



To do so, it had requested DRB-HICOM to back away from its own ongoing discussions of a business tie-up with VW which started after Proton called off strategic partnership talks a few years ago.



The purpose of the talks between DRB-HICOM and VW was not only to help the German maker fill a gap in its market reach, as South-East Asia was a weak spot for VW, but also to utilise the excess capacity at DRB-HICOM’s plants in Pekan by assembling a number of models.



It appears that VW was sold on DRB-HICOM’s ability to assemble cars in Pekan after seeing Mercedes-Benz S-class limousines being assembled at the plant.



Negotiations took some time but it is learnt that both parties were just a hair’s breadth away from coming to an agreement before Proton intervened to recommence strategic partnership talks some months ago.



Sources say DRB-HICOM intends to make Proton more competitive than it is currently operating at, given the vast synergies between the two companies. DRB-HICOM is a huge component supplier to Proton and a huge chunk of DRB-HICOM’s revenue is derived from Proton.



Furthermore, ownership of Proton and possibly fewer market restrictions would lead to more investments from other motor players in the country. DRB-HICOM has partnerships with a number of other vehicle makers such as Suzuki, Isuzu, Audi, Honda and Mercedes-Benz.



It is also learnt that its decision to buy a controlling stake in Proton is also not contingent upon Proton and VW sealing a deal. It will still go ahead with the acquisition.



Sources said DRB-HICOM still intended to pursue market opening avenues if it managed to snare control of Proton. The general consensus is that Proton would be forced to become more globally competitive once its ownership was out of the Government’s hands.



But Proton also needs a lot of subsidies to survive. If the Government were to parcel out ownership of Proton to private hands and continue to dish out protective incentives, others may then complain.



DRB-HICOM, under the stewardship of Tan Sri Mohd Saleh Sulong, was once the owner of Proton but sold a 26% controlling stake in the carmaker to Petronas for RM981mil in December 2000 as part of a restructuring process.



However, DRB-HICOM, under the control of Tan Sri Syed Mokhtar Al-Bukhary, had in 2006 disclosed its intent to buy a controlling stake in Proton.



Meanwhile, Proton group managing director Datuk Syed Zainal Abidin Syed Mohamed Tahir as saying that Proton expected to conclude talks with Indian carmakers on the collaboration of products and market by next year (2010).

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What’s Up? … dated Sept 2009



DRB-HICOM Bhd has made a pitch to GM about jointly conducting completely-knocked-down (CKD) operations in the country.



Market sources said the prospects of doing local assembly for GM would be beneficial to future sales as locally assembled cars would be cheaper.



GM is conducting a review of its operations and business in Malaysia and in the centre of talks is the business relationship with DRB-HICOM via HICOM-Chevrolet Sdn Bhd.



One report indicated a decision might have been made with current Chevy 3S dealer Cergazam Sdn Bhd, a company owned by timber company Permaju Industries Bhd, with Cergazam taking over distribution operations until a full-time partner could be found.



The seeming breakdown in the relationship between GM and DRB-HICOM is somewhat puzzling as the latter has had a long and fruitful relationship with other vehicle manufacturers in the country.



From having total control, DRB-HICOM now has a minority stake in the Suzuki business in the country and business is said to be good.



In Mitsubishi, the company has a 48% stake and is looking hard at doing some CKD operations here.



The Isuzu operations too have seen DRB-HICOM taking a minority stake after running the show in the past. After restructuring operations in Pekan, the joint-venture company with Isuzu is said to be flourishing and profitable.



DRB-HICOM is also assembling Mercedes-Benz cars at its plant in Pekan, which the company sees as an endorsement of its capabilities.



There are many others who are knocking on DRB-HICOM’s doors wanting to explore the possibility of doing assembly in Pekan.



Its most successful joint venture is with Honda, where DRB-HICOM has a 34% stake.



With the Chevy business in Malaysia , DRB-HICOM started distributing and selling GM cars in 2003 and was selling about 6,000 cars a year with more than 30 dealers under its wing. The number of dealers shrank over time given GM’s preference for its dealers to have 3S (sales, service and spares) capability. There are now about eight dealers in the country, the largest of which is Cergazam.



Apart from being impacted by the national automotive policy (NAP), sales have also not been helped by a sparse lineup of new models. GM has sold just under 1,000 cars since taking over management control of HICOM-Chevrolet in 2007 and market observers said the Chevy Cruze would be the only big name new car slotted for sale next year.

翁诗杰最需要的是.........反省和这张小小的"鼓励小语"........

忍耐一下子 富裕一輩子! !月 薪 2萬台币(2千令吉)， 理 出 百 萬 不 是 夢！

忍耐一下子 富裕一輩子

年薪百萬或是賺到第一個100萬，一直是年輕上班族的人生第一個夢想，有了這第一桶金，才有信心繼續追尋成家、立業、置產、致富等其他人生大夢。而104人力銀行的調查顯示，絕大多數的人希望在30歲以前擁有100萬，但只有不到3成的人做得到，其中超過一半是靠固定薪水省吃儉用存下來的，不過前提是：要有穩定的工作、不太差的薪水，當然，絕對不能有負債！

然而行政院主計處公布，目前失業率為6.13％，失業人口多達67萬人，已是近30年來最高紀錄，想要盡快擁有第一桶金，就不能讓自己失業。當景氣大好時，有些積極的上班族覺得工作賺錢太慢，甚至會選擇做個專職投資人，但是任何投資都有風險，尤其是全球走向低成長、低利率的景氣發展趨勢，對於投資本錢及知識都不足的年輕人來說，每年固定調薪2％左右的穩定工作，可以同時累積資產和賺錢能力，反而是讓你致富的重要推手。

月入2、3萬元要成為百萬小富翁，很難嗎？其實關鍵在於價值觀與行動力！只要你懂得「先窮一下子，再富一輩子」的道理，不要先急著享受，也不要想一步登天、一夕致富，按部就班的強化核心資產—工作能力與理財能力，並做好風險控管，那麼無論百萬或千萬富翁都能輕鬆達成，以下就與你分享快樂致富的甜蜜SWEET心法。

█只要甜蜜SWEET百萬輕鬆落袋

＞＞心法1：持續儲蓄 SAVE　先儲蓄再支出就不會負債

每月到了發薪日，你做的第一件事是什麼？繳信用卡費、買件新衣服，還是先轉存8千元到定期投資帳戶？由於塑膠貨幣非常盛行，多數上班族都是沒錢就刷、沒錢再領，等到存款繳不起信用卡帳單，才驚覺自己成了月光族，若你還有「在30歲擁有百萬」的雄心，切記「收入－儲蓄＝支出」這個公式，無論賺多少，先把致富的種子存下來，餘錢再拿去花費。


目前國人平均儲蓄率約25％，因此每月至少存下6千元是合理的，而且要持續，才能發揮錢滾錢的複利功效，再透過記帳，釐清是否還有省錢的空間，通常單是飲食費、交通費、置裝費及娛樂交際費，就有很大的調整彈性，省下這些純消費的開支，部分轉為增加教育進修的預算，對於未來的競爭力與資產也會有明顯的幫助。

心法2：努力工作 Work HARD　有穩定收入才有致富的本錢

經過試算，如果22歲大學畢業就開始工作，而且每個月能夠攢下8千元，投入年報酬率5％的投資工具，到了30歲就能擁有100萬，萬一薪資偏低實在存不了8千元，就想辦法開源吧！Jcase外包銀行指出，目前約有30萬人尋求兼差工作，主要是計時店員或接案美術設計、軟體程式及文字工作，平均每月可多增加約2萬元收入，但是常見3個人同時爭取一份工作，想多賺錢還是得更努力。


104人力銀行行銷總監邱文仁即指出，未來是高度競爭的就業時代，每個人除需積極展現企圖心、溝通力、獨立性與學習力等出色的人格特質外，更重要的是不斷投資自己，栽培自己成為各產業、各職務欠缺的優質人才，並有計畫地累積各種工作能力與經驗，如此身價自然水漲船高，到時是事求人而非人求事，不僅百萬可以輕鬆落袋，還能開展成功的人生！

＞＞心法3：拒絕負債 NO DEBT　不擴張信用，不借錢投資

在金融風暴發生前，國內爆發雙卡債務風暴，由於過度擴張信用，使得信用卡與現金卡的總欠款金額突破8千億元，在不景氣的影響下，風暴更如野火燎原，至今繳不出欠款的卡奴估計約50萬人，平均每人欠款60萬元，每個月都有約5萬人債務協商失敗而使信用破產。而動用循環信用的持卡人，即使每月繳款，平均每張卡還是欠2、3萬元左右，再加上有90萬人需償還就學貸款，平均欠款40萬元左右，如果這些你都有份，一時之間真的很難翻身！


如果已經欠款，當務之急就是剪卡，不要再增加債務，然後積極進行債務協商，當然你必須有工作才有協商空間，展現還款誠意，集中向最大債權銀行溝通，還款利率、金額、時間，甚至代償條件都可以談，或是借低利還高利、借長期還短期，以有抵押的房貸或無抵押的信貸等中長期貸款，來還掉立即性的卡債，前者利率在3％以下、後者在8％左右，與20％的卡債利率差距相當可觀……【完整內容及圖表請見《理財周刊》476期；訂閱理財周刊紙本雜誌】